Jerusalem: Compared to the January 15th agreement, which entered into force last January 19th, it can be said that the October 9th agreement, which entered into force on October 10th for a ceasefire in Gaza, will not meet the same fate, even if its implementation scenarios differ. However, it is likely they will not deviate from what the Israeli entity habitually practices in terms of evasion leading to the renunciation of the agreement, as is its consistent pattern.
According to Yemen News Agency, the first phase agreement, which was consensus-based, signed in Sharm El-Sheikh on Thursday, and entered into force at noon on Friday Jerusalem time, includes the release of all living Israeli captives and bodies held by the factions within 72 hours of the ceasefire agreement entering into force. This is in exchange for the entity releasing 1,700 Palestinian prisoners captured since the start of the war in October 2023, in addition to 250 Palestinian prisoners sentenced to life in Israeli prisons.
The first phase agreement also stipulates the return of displaced persons from the south of the enclave to Gaza City (center) and the north of the enclave immediately upon the actual start of the agreement's implementation, which began since Friday afternoon. The agreement further stipulates that this coincides with the start of the entry of aid at a rate of 400 trucks daily during the first five days of the agreement's implementation, increasing later, with "UN agencies and other organizations receiving and distributing it, and the implementation of what was included in the January 15, 2025 agreement in this regard begins."
Regarding the "Israeli" withdrawal from the enclave, the agreement stipulates a gradual "Israeli" withdrawal through three phases: It begins with the Yellow Line, which includes withdrawal from Gaza City and repositioning within the enclave, then the Red Line, which involves a deeper withdrawal in a later stage, leading to the Black Line, which represents the final phase, where the Israeli enemy forces are stationed in a buffer zone along the border. The agreement text expressed this through relative values based on the enclave's geography. In contrast, the Hamas movement emphasizes the importance of the plan ending with a complete Israeli withdrawal from the enclave and a comprehensive cessation of the war.
Meanwhile, the enemy Israeli government announced on Thursday that after the release of the captives, its forces would control and retain about 53% of Gaza, while the plan stipulates that the enemy Israeli forces, in the third path, withdraw to what constitutes 15 percent of the enclave's area.
There are four potential scenarios for the outcome of implementing the first phase agreement:
· The first scenario involves the implementation of the ceasefire, the exchange of all living Israeli captives and bodies for the release of Palestinian prisoners as agreed upon, and allowing the entry of aid, while the completion of the implementation regarding the Israeli withdrawal and reaching the Black Line falters. The enemy will exploit this to renounce the agreement after recovering its captives, fabricating pretexts as is its habit to resume bombing the enclave, parallel to resuming deployment. In turn, the implementation of the agreement regarding aid stops, the crossings are closed again, while the Israeli enemy proceeds to besiege and bomb the geography of the enclave after receiving its captives.
· The second scenario is the implementation of all clauses of the first phase agreement, while reaching a consensus in the second phase negotiations falters due to the insistence of the Israeli and American sides on implementing the Trump plan to the letter, especially regarding the administration of the enclave, the disarmament of the resistance, and reconstruction; which the factions reject according to the text of the Trump plan, and they had previously confirmed their rejection of it, especially in the preliminary approval statement. Consequently, the Israeli enemy will resume bombing, deployment in the enclave, and reimpose the siege under the pretext of stalled negotiations on managing the enclave, disarming the resistance, and reconstruction.
· The third scenario involves the failure to convene the second phase negotiations after the successful implementation of the first phase clauses for many reasons, including Israeli conditions or fabricated pretexts, with the Israeli enemy continuing, from its positions in the third withdrawal line, intermittent bombing of areas in the enclave (as in southern Lebanon) and closing the crossings, while its forces remain in the so-called buffer area as pressure to implement the second phase according to the content of the Trump plan, and imposing a security cordon on the enclave, thus a second level of siege.
· The fourth scenario might involve the implementation of all clauses of the first phase agreement with the return of intermittent bombing, the resumption of partial opening of crossings, the convening of second phase negotiations, and agreement on a Palestinian-Arab body to administer the enclave and consensus on the issue of reconstructing Gaza; while negotiating the factions' weapons is postponed to a third phase; this relative success might represent a fourth scenario.
In this regard, the official spokesman for the Hamas movement, Hazem Qassem, said on Saturday evening that the movement is working to remove all pretexts of the Zionist enemy to evade implementing the terms of the ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip.
Qassem confirmed, in a statement to Al-Arabi TV, that the Palestinian resistance is determined to complete the implementation of the first phase of the ceasefire agreement, indicating that the agreement is still holding so far and the withdrawals of the Zionist enemy army are proceeding according to the agreement.
Away from these scenarios, observers suggest that the Israeli enemy will exploit any loophole in implementing the terms of the first phase agreement to return the situation to square one, especially after recovering its captives; resuming the war on the enclave guarantees the continuation of Netanyahu's government until the election date; especially since its cessation would put him in the spotlight and hold him accountable for what he achieved during two years of aggression; whereas if the international stance, particularly the European one, awakens from its slumber, it would be able to pressure the American and Israeli stance and push the agreement towards success in all its stages.
The post-first phase negotiations are marred by many serious obstacles, as they relate to the fate of administering the enclave, disarming the resistance, and reconstruction; which has not been negotiated yet after the negotiations for implementing the Trump plan were fragmented into stages; amidst the Palestinian factions' confirmation of their rejection of any foreign trusteeship over the enclave, and their emphasis on refusing to disarm the resistance except after completing liberation and establishing a Palestinian state, and their firm stance on reconstruction commitments, according to Hamas.
In a joint statement on Friday, the Hamas and Islamic Jihad movements and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine confirmed that determining the form of administration of the Gaza Strip and the foundations for the work of its institutions is an internal Palestinian matter determined jointly by the national components of the people, while being prepared to benefit from Arab and international participation in the areas of reconstruction, recovery, and support for development, in a way that enhances a dignified life for the Palestinian people and preserves their rights to their land.
They considered this stage an opportunity to enhance social solidarity within the Gaza Strip by supporting affected families, securing daily life necessities, and activating frameworks of cooperation between the factions, society, and relevant local and international institutions.
To bring the picture closer to the current reality inside the enclave, the Palestinian Civil Defense in the enclave said on Saturday that more than 300,000 displaced people have returned to Gaza City since the ceasefire, confirming that there are no tents or ready-made houses to shelter the returning citizens from the southern areas.
One cannot address the ceasefire agreement without referring to the crimes of genocide committed by the Israeli enemy, and the savage destruction of all factors of population stability throughout the enclave. Such crimes cannot be absolved, allowing the enemy to escape punishment, no matter how many ceasefire agreements follow.
In this context, the Euro-Mediterranean Human Rights Monitor, based in Geneva, called on Saturday for enabling journalists and international media, along with fact-finding committees and international investigators, to have free access to the Gaza Strip to document "the crime of genocide committed by 'Israel'" and ensure accountability for those responsible and justice for the victims, pointing out that "the continued media blackout allows 'Israel' to evade accountability and undermines the chances for justice."
It emphasized that the people of Gaza "need more than a ceasefire," calling for a comprehensive end to the siege, the launch of an internationally supervised relief and reconstruction plan, and guaranteeing the freedom of Palestinians and their right to live in dignity and security on their land, warning against "Israeli schemes aimed at imposing a permanent security cordon or buffer zones inside the enclave," considering them "an attempt to reshape Gaza demographically and geographically."