Washington: When Iraq's new Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi meets with Donald Trump at the White House, a significant topic on the agenda will be the disarming of Iran-affiliated militias in Iraq. These discussions take place against the backdrop of the ongoing US-Iran conflict, with the role of Iranian-backed paramilitaries in Iraq being a focal point of concern.
According to Deutsche Welle, the paramilitary groups, primarily known as the Popular Mobilization Front (PMF), were initially formed in 2014 to combat the Islamic State. Currently, the PMF consists of approximately 240,000 fighters and operates with an annual budget of around $3.5 billion. Some factions within the PMF are part of Iran's "Axis of Resistance," which includes Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Hamas. During the US-Iran conflict, certain PMF factions have been implicated in attacks on US bases in Iraq, Kuwait, and Jordan. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasized the impossibility of regional peace while Iranian proxies engage in hostilities from Iraq.
The US has exerted pressure on Iraq to address this issue by designating several PMF factions as "foreign terrorist organizations," imposing sanctions on PMF-linked businesses, and threatening to block Iraq's oil revenues. In response, the Iraqi government has announced plans to bring all arms under state control by the end of September, with non-compliant groups facing prosecution.
Significant moves have been made, such as influential cleric Muqtada al-Sadr's order for his faction, Saraya al-Salam, to surrender weapons to the state. Other groups like Asaib Ahl al-Haq (AAH) and Kataib Imam Ali have also agreed to transfer weapons and personnel to state control. However, doubts persist about the sincerity of these pledges, with some suggesting that these groups may simply be "rebranding."
Many PMF factions wield political influence, holding a substantial number of seats in the Iraqi parliament and controlling key ministries. This political clout makes disarmament challenging to monitor and verify, as noted by experts like Omar al-Nidawi and Sajad Jiyad.
While some factions like AAH are shifting focus towards political engagement, others, such as Kataib Hezbollah, remain committed to armed resistance. This strategic allocation of roles within Iran-aligned factions raises questions about the effectiveness of disarmament efforts in reducing Iran's influence in Iraq.
Experts argue that unless sustained stability is achieved in the region, anti-US activities may continue to emerge from Iraq. The strong pro-Iran sentiment among various Iraqi groups and sections of the population further complicates matters.
While the disarmament pledges may hint at a less confrontational future, concerns about accountability for past crimes by these groups remain. The normalization of groups involved in serious crimes poses a challenge for both Iraq and the international community.