Reopening Hormuz Strait Easier Than Restoring Confidence, Naval Analyst Tallis Says

Riyadh: Military operations between the US and Iran have renewed attention on the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which roughly one-fifth of the world's seaborne oil trade usually passes. Despite a significant US military presence, shipping companies remain reluctant to transit the strait, highlighting a reality that extends beyond naval power: the greatest challenge may be restoring confidence among commercial operators. According to Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty, naval strategist and maritime security analyst Joshua Tallis, a research program director at the Center for Naval Analyses, discussed the evolving military balance, Iran's asymmetric capabilities, freedom of navigation, diplomacy, and what success would actually look like in the Strait of Hormuz. Tallis explained that the security environment has returned to a state of uncertainty, similar to earlier this year, due to Iran's ability to impose costs on vessels and influence the maritime marketplace, affecting shipowners' willingness to transit the Strait. Tallis pointed out that the current situation involves both military and market challenges. While the US promotes a southern route through Omani waters as safer, Iran encourages a northern route through its waters, imposing taxes on transiting vessels. The military challenges involve defending against airborne threats such as drones and missiles, while market forces see elevated insurance premiums and concerns over vessel safety, leading to hesitance among shippers. Iran's geographic proximity gives it an advantage, allowing the use of inexpensive and effective asymmetric capabilities, which are difficult to eliminate, to influence market behavior. If the US aims to ensure freedom of navigation, success would involve normal traffic volumes without taxes or coercion, adhering to international shipping corridors. Tallis noted that military strikes alone are insufficient to reduce Iran's threat to shipping due to the dispersed production of low-cost weapons. Instead, a combination of mi litary coercion and diplomacy would be necessary to restore freedom of navigation. Restoring commercial confidence is crucial, as even if the strait reopens, the absence of coercion and taxes is vital for normalcy. The potential for negotiations includes maritime security as a central issue, with confidence-building measures around shipping possibly benefiting both Iran and the US. Restoring hydrocarbon flow through the strait could provide economic benefits and increase Iran's oil exports. Comparisons to the Red Sea scenario highlight that unlike the alternative route through Africa, the Strait of Hormuz lacks such options, making continued shipping despite risks inevitable. The dispersed ownership in the oil and gas shipping sector may lead to some shipowners accepting higher risks sooner, driven by the need to maintain exports.