Geneva: The World Trade Organization (WTO) announced on Thursday that the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East are putting significant pressure on global trade growth forecasts and threaten to lower its projections for 2026.
According to Yemen News Agency, the organization, headquartered in the Swiss city of Geneva, issued an update to its report on global trade outlook and statistics. The report warned that escalating tension in the region, resulting from American and Israeli attacks on Iran, could negatively impact global trade more than expected if energy prices remain high.
The report pointed out that continued conflicts and rising energy costs add burdens to food supplies and services trade, especially with disruptions in the travel and transport sectors, which could lead to a contraction in trade volume.
The report explained that after the strong growth achieved last year thanks to products supported by artificial intelligence, it is expected to slow down in 2026. It added, "The ongoing conflicts in the Middle East could lead to a further decline in trade growth if energy prices remain high. This will put pressure on food and services trade as a result of disruptions in travel and transport."
However, the report expressed optimism that global trade could improve again "if the conflicts end quickly and spending on AI continues to rise." WTO economists predicted in the report that the growth rate of global goods trade would decrease by 0.5 percentage points, reaching 1.4 percent, if crude oil and LNG prices remain high throughout 2026.